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Thematic Investors: Analog Century Management a Billion Dollar Perspective on Hard Technology

By Thematic Investors | March 12, 2025

In the world of institutional investing, many trailblazers didn’t start in finance. This field boasts talents from backgrounds, including musicians, philosophers, and even physicists. Take Val Zlatev, for instance. Originally a physicist, his journey took a thrilling turn during a Chicago event when he visited the commodities exchange. Upon looking down at the trading floor he saw enthusiasm and energy that he imagined could be larger and more exciting than the amount of energy in physics for the last 500 years. He was hooked.

In this latest episode of the Thematic Investors podcast, Val Zlatev, Portfolio Manager and Partner, Analog Century Management sits down with host Kieran Cavanna to discuss hard technology and agentic AI investing. This discussion focuses on the core belief that as a thematic investor, you develop a conviction and ultimately decide whether you can create capital from your thesis.

Key discussion points include:

How to recognize, and formulate a solid investing strategy on what you know and understand about the markets.
What exactly is the true potential of AI, how are chain-of-thought models evolving, and how likely is it that we will experience a terminator moment in the future.
What makes models like DeepSeek so unique, and what Val sees in their evolution and how Elon Musk and Meta might be involved.
Is the investment industry right to panic in their assessment of scaling laws being broken and AI reaching a peak?
What does Val believe about broad cyclical trends and what may or may not be coming from Silicon Valley.
What is the state of play in China as it relates to hard technology and cutting-edge semiconductors.
And more.

Previous Episode of Interest:

Thematic Investors: Scott Bessent a Global Macro Veteran on the Path Ahead

Connect with Kieran Cavanna:

Kieran Cavanna is the Co-Founder and CIO of Old Farm Partners. Old Farm is a hedge fund allocation firm focusing on small and mid-sized hedge funds, as well as co-investment opportunities with $600m under management. Prior to Old Farm, Mr. Cavanna worked at Soros Fund Management where he served as the Head of the External Manager Selection team. Mr. Cavanna and his team performed due diligence on and allocated to a select group of hedge funds that deployed a wide variety of hedge fund strategies. Prior to Soros, Kieran was a Partner and the Head of Research at Titan Advisors, a $5b fund-of-hedge funds. In total, Mr. Cavanna has been allocating to hedge funds for 18 years. Mr. Cavanna started his financial career at KPMG Consulting as Senior Analyst. Mr. Cavanna graduated from the University of Richmond with a BA and received an MBA from Vanderbilt University.

Connect with Val Zlatev:

Please note, the information covered and posted represents the views and opinions of the guest, and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of Vidrio Financial and or our host, Kieran Cavanna. The content has been made available for informational and educational purposes only. The content is not intended to be a substitute for professional investing advice. Always seek the advice of your financial advisor or other qualified financial service provider with any questions you may have regarding investment planning.

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Thematic Investors: Arvind Sanger on Long-Short Energy Transition Investing

By ThematicInvestors | February 26, 2025

Long-short investors seriously targeting the energy sector need to adjust their nets and focus on placing bets on everything from coal, oil, natural gas, uranium, and other relevant sectors. This investment style isn’t about making massive directional wagers like a CTA fund; instead, it’s about leveraging macro trends to balance risks and seize opportunities in this dynamic market.

Join host Kieran Cavanna as he sits down with Arvind Sanger, founder and managing partner, Geosphere Capital Management. Arvind explores his background, how he became interested in alternative energy sources, and where there are real demonstrable money-making opportunities to be made in today’s market.

Key insights that Arvind shares with our audience include:

How a macro-overlay strategy helps manage risk and exposure for portfolios.
How his sensible energy transition thesis looked at real energy transition goals, removing the popular belief, that fossil fuels would disappear if investors stopped targeting these opportunities.
What is most important in US power and how policy regulations and current deal-making strategies might be pushing out green energy in favor of AI and data center investments.
The use of small modular reactors (SMRs) to help energy transition goals when considering nuclear applications.
Why coal is still a good strategy for long-short investors and why demand is still not at a peak level.
What he thinks about Scott Bessent’s 3-3-3 plan in the oil and gas sector. (You can listen to more of Scott’s interview with Kieran here).
And more.

Connect with Arvind Sanger
Geosphere Capital Management

Arvind Sanger is the founder and managing partner of Geosphere Capital Management, a global long-short equity hedge fund focused on natural resources and industrial companies worldwide.

A former portfolio manager at SAC Capital where he managed a team of six investment professionals in New York and Singapore, Arvind’s career also includes 15 years as a top-ranked sell-side oil services and equipment analyst at a number of firms, including Deutsche Bank, DLJ and Kidder Peabody.

Arvind graduated with a BTech from the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, and received his MBA from Tulane University. He is a member of the Business School Council at The A.B. Freeman School of Business at Tulane University and is a former chairman of Pratham USA.

Connect with Kieran Cavanna:

Old Farm Partners
Kieran Cavanna is the Co-Founder and CIO of Old Farm Partners. Old Farm is a hedge fund allocation firm focusing on small and mid-sized hedge funds, as well as co-investment opportunities with $600m under management. Prior to Old Farm, Mr. Cavanna worked at Soros Fund Management where he served as the Head of the External Manager Selection team. Mr. Cavanna and his team performed due diligence on and allocated to a select group of hedge funds that deployed a wide variety of hedge fund strategies. Prior to Soros, Kieran was a Partner and the Head of Research at Titan Advisors, a $5b fund-of-hedge funds. In total, Mr. Cavanna has been allocating to hedge funds for 18 years. Mr. Cavanna started his financial career at KPMG Consulting as Senior Analyst. Mr. Cavanna graduated from the University of Richmond with a BA and received an MBA from Vanderbilt University.

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Thematic Investors: Gavin Baker Blending Sci-fi, History and Literature for Tech Investing Success

By Thematic Investors | July 1, 2024

Michael Steinhardt offered invaluable insights into investing, emphasizing the importance of conviction, balance, and the willingness to acknowledge mistakes. This rings especially true in the dynamic world of technology investments, where assessing asset pricing and risk in areas like artificial intelligence, application software, GPUs, and data management is crucial for success.

In this latest episode of the Thematic Investors podcast, Kieran Cavanna is joined by Gavin Baker, CIO & Managing Partner, Atreides Management, LP. Gavin shares how his love of history and games of chance ignited his enthusiasm for technology investing.

Additional key points discussed in this podcast with Gavin include:

how he said goodbye (momentarily) to the dream of living in a pickup and rock climbing and doubled down on investing in technology-themed investments.
throughout history, starting from the era of the steam engine, we have observed the emergence of technological bubbles that often herald a new wave of investment opportunities. As we contemplate the rise of AI, the question arises: could we be on the brink of another such transformative bubble?
how can VC’s or private equity firms take advantage of data center investments for the future.
the challenges that numerous multi-billion dollar startups encounter in this industry and the significant risks associated with investing in them, particularly with the formidable presence of industry giants such as Google, Meta, and Microsoft and the rest of the Magnificent Seven..
how his time at Fidelity prepared him with an ‘investing lens’ to see the truly different CEOs of our time. He explains how it’s almost like watching Jordan play basketball and comparing the way Elon and Jensen run Tesla and Nvidia.
how his parents’ love of literature and history helped him open his imagination to technology investing across both public and private asset classes.
And more.

Resources:

Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital by Carlota Perez
Google: Attention is All You Need

Connect with Kieran Cavanna:

About Gavin Baker:

Gavin Baker is the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Atreides Management, LP. In addition to overseeing investments and research at Atreides, he is responsible for the firm’s day-to-day portfolio management. Prior to founding Atreides in 2019, Gavin was at Fidelity Investments from 1999 to 2017, most recently as the portfolio manager of the Fidelity OTC Portfolio from 2009 to 2017. He also helped spearhead Fidelity’s venture capital investing from 2013 to 2017. Prior to managing the Fidelity OTC Portfolio, he was a portfolio manager of the Fidelity Select Wireless Portfolio from 2007 to 2011, the Fidelity Select Telecommunications Portfolio from 2007 to 2009, and the Fidelity Select Pharmaceuticals Portfolio from 2002 to 2005. Gavin started his career at Fidelity as an analyst and focused on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, retail, consumer packaged goods, and telecommunications. Gavin earned an AB in economics and history from Dartmouth College.

All opinions expressed by Gavin Baker in this podcast (the “Podcast”) are solely his own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Atreides Management, LP (“Atreides”). This Podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Atreides may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this Podcast. This is not an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security in any fund managed by Atreides. The statements and opinions contained herein may change at any time, based on market or other conditions. This Podcast includes forward-looking statements, including projections of future economic conditions, and information that is provided for illustrative purposes. Atreides does not make any representation, warranty, guarantee, or other assurance whatsoever that any of such forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate.

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Thematic Investors: Scott Bessent a Global Macro Veteran on the Path Ahead

By Thematic Investors | May 13, 2024

Legendary basketball coach Pat Riley was once quoted as saying, “Keep the main thing, the main thing”, which is a great tip for anyone wishing to enter the field of macro investing on the global stage. Everyone has similar data but the secret is how you interpret that intelligence in terms of risk, economic indicators, and even a bit of financial market history.

In this latest installment of the Thematic Investors podcast, host Kieran Cavanna welcomes a guest who has successfully blended those aspects into becoming one of the great macro thinkers in the hedge fund world. Scott Bessent, Founder of Key Square Capital, has built his career from early investigative journalism roots to a financial analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman, to a Middle Eastern family office, and on to becoming the CIO of Soros Fund Management. Delve into a captivating discussion with Scott as he offers insights into global financial markets spanning Japan, China, Europe, and the United States, unveiling the future landscape for investors and emerging trends.

Further highlights from Scott include:

how a Yale Career Advisory job posting, (complete with sofa bed) led him to reboot his career focus after being on the fence as a computer scientist or journalist.
his transfer to the London office of Soros Fund Management, and his big bet on the Quantum Fund.
a view of data analytics today and how his investment style is a mix of liberal arts, math, and Excel formulas.
his thoughts around the abuse of the “exorbitant privilege” in the United States, and what that means for national security and the future debt trajectory.
his run-in with Sam Bankman-Fried.
thoughts on artificial intelligence and whether it’s inflationary or deflationary, and how hyperscalers who are investing trillions in new data center projects may be working us towards an electricity shortage.
how the lead-up to the 2024 election is impacting financial markets and what sort of outcomes could occur if a Republican or Democrat becomes president.
And more

Resources:

Connect with Kieran Cavanna:

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Thematic Investors: James Davolos on why investors can’t paint-by-the-numbers in real asset investing

By Thematic Investors | March 20, 2024

Looking for asymmetry in the institutional investing space, and making it a part of your core competencies is not an easy task. In many instances, this requires hard work built on chasing down inefficiencies in the market and going into research overdrive on an idea where very little sell-side coverage exists. This is where great success stories are made.

In this week’s episode of the Thematic Investors podcast, host Kieran Cavanna, speaks with guest James Davolos, Portfolio Manager, Horizon Kinetics who shares his methodology on tackling high inflationary markets while becoming a rising star in the value investing space.

James also covers:

his early hotel beginnings on the New Jersey Shore and how that evolved to the trading desk at Horizon Kinetics.
the end of the ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of low inflation, volatility, interest rates, and how the playbook has changed from the last 10-20 years.
what it means to be a bottom-up investor, going after investment opportunities using unconventional data collection techniques.
the prevailing logic around the topic of “immaculate disinflation” and whether investors are considering the full picture?
easy gains in AI for investors, and what does the full net benefit look like over time.
And more

Connect with Kieran Cavanna:

Connect with James Davolos:

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